Emerging-market bulls pin currency hopes on hawks outpacing Fed
DUBAI (BLOOMBERG) Emerging-market currencies hit by a hawkish Federal Reserve could soon regain their record run against the dollar on expectations that developing central banks may outpace their US counterpart in policy tightening. The currencies of Brazil, Russia, the Czech Republic, South Africa and Hungary - countries that delivered multiple rate hikes or are expected to do so soon - are retaining quarterly gains and outperforming peers. More may join their ranks, with tightening expectations growing for countries including Chile and South Africa as economic activity and inflation roar back from a pandemic-driven slump. In comparison, the Fed has signalled it's likely to lift interest rates only in 2023. While recent dollar gains have stalled the momentum in emerging-market currencies, that picture could change once the greenback's support from positioning shifts fades, according to Bank of Singapore and JPMorgan Asset Management. "Emerging-market central banks are set to begin raising interest rates well before the Fed," said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore. "Over the summer, lower volatility may induce investors to put on seasonal carry trades again t...
